The headline number
The overnight range is the Globex high and low, the extremes built between the 18:00 ET reopen and the 09:30 ET cash open. We measured how often the regular session takes those levels out, across NQ and ES from 2020 to mid-2026.
of 1,670 sessions · both sides: 24.8%
of 1,668 sessions · both sides: 21.0%
Nineteen days in twenty, the cash session extends beyond an overnight extreme. What is uncommon, roughly one day in four to five, is breaking both overnight rails: those are the wide, two-sided sessions where the overnight range is fully engulfed.
The full breakdown
The overnight high is taken out more often than the overnight low on both instruments, echoing the mild upward drift seen in the prior-day-level data.
| Outcome (RTH session) | NQ | ES |
|---|---|---|
| Breaks either overnight extreme | 94.7% | 93.8% |
| Breaks the overnight high | 63.2% | 61.5% |
| Breaks the overnight low | 56.3% | 53.4% |
| Breaks both overnight extremes | 24.8% | 21.0% |
Overnight Sessions
Shades the Asia and London session ranges and marks the overnight high and low, so the levels this study measures, and which session built them, are visible the moment the cash session opens.
See the Overnight Sessions indicator →The Asia–London–NY handoff
The overnight range is not built evenly, it is handed off from Asia to London before New York takes over. How the London range (02:00–08:00 ET) sits relative to the Asia range (20:00–02:00 ET) sets up four recurring patterns, and each one changes how often New York breaks the London extremes.
P1 · London engulfs Asia
London's range fully contains Asia's, the European session widened the picture. ~23% of days.
P2 · Asia engulfs London
Asia's range contains London's, Europe stayed quiet inside the Asian range. The rarest pattern, 4–6% of days.
P3 · Partial engulf, up
London pushed above Asia but not below, an upward shift into the open. The most common pattern, ~41% of days.
P4 · Partial engulf, down
London pushed below Asia but not above, a downward shift into the open. ~30% of days.
Once you know the pattern, the odds that New York breaks the London high or low shift with it. The table reads by ALN pattern, with each cell the share of days in that pattern where the NY session took out the London extreme.
| Pattern | NQ · brk London H | NQ · brk London L | ES · brk London H | ES · brk London L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 · London engulfs Asia | 71.4% | 70.0% | 71.2% | 67.0% |
| P2 · Asia engulfs London | 81.2% | 68.3% | 83.3% | 68.1% |
| P3 · Partial engulf, up | 81.3% | 67.5% | 80.1% | 63.8% |
| P4 · Partial engulf, down | 67.9% | 74.5% | 65.0% | 70.8% |
The pattern telegraphs the direction of the New York break. On P3 (partial engulf up) days, NY breaks the London high far more than the low (81% vs 68% on NQ); on P4 (partial engulf down) days, it flips, the London low is the more-broken side. When Europe shifts the range one way, New York tends to continue in that direction.
What it means for your trading
- ·The overnight range is a near-certain target. RTH takes out an overnight extreme ~94% of days; those levels are reliable reaction points and targets.
- ·Breaking both is the expansion day. Only ~21–25% of days engulf the full overnight range, when it happens, the session is unusually wide and trending.
- ·The London pattern carries direction. P3 favors an upside NY break, P4 favors the downside, use the overnight structure as a directional lean into the open.
- ·Most days are P3 or P4. ~71% of sessions are a partial engulf; clean containment (P2) is rare, so the overnight range usually shifts rather than balances.
Methodology
- Instruments
- NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) and ES (E-mini S&P 500), from continuous MNQ/MES micro-contract prices, the identical price series.
- Sample
- Overnight breaks: NQ n = 1,670 · ES n = 1,668. ALN patterns: NQ n = 1,663 · ES n = 1,662.
- Period
- 2 Jan 2020 – 30 Jun 2026 (~6.5 years)
- Overnight range
- Globex high/low, 18:00 ET reopen to 09:30 ET cash open
- Sessions
- Asia 20:00–02:00 ET · London 02:00–08:00 ET · New York 09:30–16:00 ET
- ALN patterns
- P1 London engulfs Asia · P2 Asia engulfs London · P3 partial engulf up · P4 partial engulf down
- Data
- 1-minute bars, US/Eastern; Steady Turtle proprietary session database
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